Patient-Based and Statistical Sales Forecasting

The patient-based sales forecasting app for the Pharma industry combines a driver-based approach with statistical methodologies to forecast sales in different therapeutic areas. This model is able to forecast the number of eligible patients and translate them into volumes using either an incidence or a prevalence patient based model. Through advanced forecasting analytics, end-users simulate a market share, calculate patient drop-out profiles, apply statistical extrapolation techniques, and are able to perform what-if scenarios. In the financial part of the model you are able to add prices and discounts, consolidate key metrics at different levels and review outcomes through e.g. a price-volume analysis, a cross-country comparison and consolidation, or a scenario analysis dashboard.


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1.5 GB
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Why Anaplan for Patient-Based and Statistical Sales Forecasting?

Allowing for a better allocation of resources and promotional investments.
Helping in understanding new markets, new indication and new trends. Moreover, Patients-Based Forecasting gives insights in the patient flow and the main drivers influencing the sales.
Understanding the primary drivers behind a forecast enables the analyst to create a dynamic therapeutic model, project the impact of future events, and quickly adjust the forecast as these events occur.
The assumptions and the impact of the assumptions on total volume and sales are easy to understand.


Build-in patient-based models by therapeutic area
  • Prevalence and incidence patient-based models (product or segment specific) starting from the epidemiology data of a region
  • Patient drop-out profile calculation and cross line reduction of patients in different treatment lines.
  • Competitive landscape analysis by product, segment and indication
  • Eligible patient derivation based on key drivers and mathematical algorithms
  • Volume derivation
Market share uptake simulator
  • Calculation of the uptake curve to peak market share based on assumptions as: launch period, peak period, peak share, uptake speed (gamma).
  • Shaping a decline curve after an onset period resulting in a final market share for the product.
  • Overwrite possibility on the leaf level.
  • Multiple uptakes and scenario’s possible.
Scenario planning
  • Possibility to run different model-specific scenario’s in the patient-based models.
  • Flexibility to assign for each patient-based model a scenario to the base, best and worst case (reported) scenario.
  • Flexibility to add different number of scenario’s to the different patient-based models
Statistical forecasting techniques
  • Calculate volumes based on historical data using different statistical methodologies (Linear regression, logarithmic regression, decomposition, …)
  • Seasonality and outlier analysis
  • Calculation of the best fitting methodology for each brand and each formulation using forecasting accuracy metrics (as MAPE).
Price-volume analysis
  • Breakdown of the year over year sales differences in volume, price and/or mix variances compared with prior year by product by country and by formulation.
  • Price-Volume comparison across different version.
Country consolidation and country comparison analysis
  • Patient-based model driver comparison across different regions.
  • KPI Consolidation dashboard with detailed country information, portfolio breakdown in different brands, …
  • Volumes, price and sales analysis (indexed numbers, trend analysis, gross vs net analysis, …)


Deloitte provides industry-leading audit, consulting, tax, and advisory services to many of the world’s most admired brands, including 70% of the Fortune 500. Our people work across more than 20 industry sectors with one purpose: to deliver measurable, lasting results. We help reinforce public trust in our capital markets, inspire clients to make their most challenging business decisions with confidence, and help lead the way toward a stronger economy and a healthy society. As a member firm of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited, a network of member firms, we are proud to be part of the largest global professional services network, serving our clients in the markets that are most important to them.


Deloitte United States

30 Rockefeller Plaza

New York, NY 10112-0015

United States



Deloitte Japan

Marunouchi Building, 2-4-1 Marunouchi

Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-6390




Deloitte Brussels

Gateway, Luchthaven Nationaal 1 J, 1930

Zaventem, Belgium



Deloitte Australia

225 George St

Sydney, New South Wales 2000




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Terms and conditions


Application Terms and Conditions: BY CLICKING TO PROCEED WITH DOWNLOAD OF THE APPLICATION, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THE TERMS BELOW SHALL GOVERN YOUR ACCESS AND USE OF THE APPLICATION. IF YOU DO NOT WISH TO BE BOUND BY THESE TERMS, DO NOT CLICK TO PROCEED. THIS APPLICATION IS NOT PROVIDED BY ANAPLAN, INC. AND THESE TERMS ARE NOT OFFERED BY ANAPLAN UNLESS ANAPLAN IS NAMED AS THE PROVIDER ON THE DOWNLOAD PAGE. USE OF THIS APPLICATION REQUIRES A VALID SUBSCRIPTION TO THE ANAPLAN HOSTED SERVICE, WHICH IS ONLY AVAILABLE THROUGH A SEPARATE AGREEMENT BETWEEN YOU AND ANAPLAN. Application Provider. The application named on the download page of the Anaplan App Hub (the “Application”) is provided by the party named on the download page (the “Application Provider”). Anaplan, Inc. (“Anaplan”) is not the Application Provider unless named as such on the download page. Terms and Conditions. This agreement (the “Terms”) contains the terms and conditions governing your use of the Application unless you have separately agreed to other terms with the Application Provider. These Terms are entered into solely between you and the Application Provider and shall become effective upon your download, access or use of the Application. Anaplan is not a party to these Terms unless it is the Application Provider. Grant of Rights; Anaplan Agreement. The Application Provider hereby grants you the nonexclusive, nontransferrable, nonsublicensable right to use the Application solely in connection with your authorized use of the Anaplan hosted service (the “Anaplan Service”). Your right to use the Application does not include the right to use the Anaplan Service, which requires a separate agreement between you and Anaplan (an “Anaplan Agreement”). You are not permitted to copy or redistribute the Application, but you may load the Application into your instance of the Anaplan Service and modify the Application in connection with your permitted use of the Anaplan Service. Evaluation and Production Use. Your right to access and use the Application is provided on a temporary basis and is limited to evaluation use for a thirty (30) day period beginning on the date of download (“Evaluation Period”). If your subscription under the Anaplan Agreement includes the right to use the Anaplan Service for the use cases covered by the Application, then you may use the Application for production purposes after the Evaluation Period, or earlier if the Application Provider agrees. If you do not have an Anaplan Agreement that includes your right to use the Anaplan Service for the use cases covered by the Application, then your right to access and use the Application will automatically terminate at the end of the Evaluation Period without notice from the Application Provider or Anaplan. Reservation of Rights. The Application contains valuable intellectual property rights of the Application Provider and you are not permitted to use or exploit such intellectual property rights except as explicitly permitted in these Terms. The Application Provider reserves all right, title and interest in the Application except for the rights explicitly granted to you in these Terms. Your right to use the Application will terminate immediately upon any breach of these Terms by you, or upon the termination or expiration of your Anaplan Agreement. Either party may terminate these Terms at any time in its discretion by providing the other party with notice, at which time your right to access and use the Application will terminate immediately.

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